07082009

Now that the market has already started to show its bearish momentum. It failed to break this year's high at 162.6. Hence i presume my count of wave 3 is correct and now i'm anticipating a drop till 158.8 (23.6 retracement) at least for wave 4 and then watch out for any reversal signal. If it breaks through, further support will be at 158.5, 157.8 and 157.4. I plan to go buy deep next week at 157.4 and 156.6 hoping for another good swing for me. The target will be at 164.7 or 165 area.

p/s: still reading Gann related books

06082009

I TPed all my long positions last monday when it hit my 2.62 FE. Withdrawn all the profits gained to avoid overtrade. Today I just opened a new account playing with the given free margin again. The market is losing its momentum and just making sideway movement. I'm planning to buy deep again if the market retrace for wave 4. Otherwise i'll just buy shallow if the market continues its extended wave 3 beyond 2.62 FE.

31072009

GJ breaks the stiff resistance at 157.4 after 3 tries. My sell postions were closed by gaining few pips only. I don't have any position right now and waiting to make a better entry. I can see that the market has already overbought but it doesn't mean that i can enter short in near term. Now i'm anticipating a rise till 158.5 and will decide to enter short later on. Perhaps the next 3 candlesticks will tell me the direction of the market until the market close this week. I will have to put my eyes on Nikkei when the asian session opens. On the other hand, i'm anticipating the count of wave 3 in the long term at 162 area.

30072009

The market went down to 153.89 making lower low today as expected but it didn't reach my TP yet. My SL was nearly touched when it rised to 156.3. Right now i'm still holding my sell position as it bounced from the resistance which can be found on timeframe 1 hour at 156.32. The market is still in sell bias or double top bearish divergence if we look at the chart on timeframe 4 hour.

29072009

My TP hitted at 154.9 and it went down to 154.15. As it breaks my support line and fibo at 154.5, i believe that the market will continue its bearish movement down to 153 or extremely 152.33. On timeframe 1 hour, the market is oversold thus i'm anticipating a retracement up to 155.68 (daily support 1). However on timeframe 4 hour the market is still showing its sell bias. Right now i'm waiting for my sell PO to be hitted at 155.6 with TP 153 and tight SL. If the market rise beyond 156.55 then the bearish continuation will become invalid hence the count of wave 3 at 157.6 is not true.

28072009

Right now i'm anticipating a little bit pullback for retracement before the market continues it's bullish rally since 8 July 2009 at 146.88 where the major support lies. GJ is now rallying from 146.88 where it started the 1st wave to 152.28 then it retraced beyond my 61.8 Fibonacci Retracement, down to 147.1 where it completed its 2nd wave. According to my Elliot Wave analysis based on a book titled Overview of Fibonacci and Elliot Wave Relationships by Marc Rinehart, 45% of the time wave 3 will push to between 1.618 to 1.75 of wave 1's length and 30% of the time between 1.75 to 2.618 of wave 1's length. Currently the market has rallied a bit beyond my 1.75 Fibonacci Expansion (FE) hence i'm anticipating the completion of wave 3 will be topped at 2.618 FE at 161.74 or nearest fibo at 161.93. By looking at the current momentum shown by Stochastic Oscillator on timeframe 4 hour, the market is nearly overbought. Hence i'm anticipating a slight pullback to 154.9, where it becomes a strong support after acting as neckline during last month's pattern Head n Shoulder before it continues its rally to complete wave 3. Either it be completion of wave 3 (overshoot beyond FE 1.75) at new high last week at 157.6 and now performing wave 4 or it is just performing a typical retracement. Further break beyond 154.9, wave 4 will be taken into account where next support lies at 152.34. On the other hand, the market will continue its rally to the said target, 161.74, 161.93 or this year's new high at 162.6.